The tanker market entered a correction last week after the records set in early October, but freight remains many times above pre-crisis levels because voyages around Hormuz are still prolonged. The IEA (14 October) forecasts 2026 global oil consumption to fall by 2.6 million barrels per day to about 102.4 million barrels per day (forecast), before recovering by about 2 million barrels per day in 2027. Brent traded around USD 113 per barrel on 30 October.

VLCC

The Baltic Exchange’s TD3C index (Middle East Gulf to China) eased to WS 1,208 in the week ended 23 October, equal to a round-trip TCE of about USD 1.29 million per day and 8.8% below 9 October. According to Breakwave, Atlantic rates from the US Gulf and West Africa have fallen 27% and 32% from their peaks over two weeks. The reason is that moving US crude to China on a VLCC costs about USD 29 per barrel, nearly double the USD 15.6 from the Gulf of Oman (Clarksons), so November bookings of US crude for Asia are only about half of October’s volume.

Aframax

The cargo-splitting effect continues to support this segment. The TD25 index (US Gulf to UK-Continent) slipped to about WS 651, or nearly USD 197,000 per day, roughly 36% below USD 308,200 per day on 9 October. Even so, BRS reports that the Baltic Aframax earnings basket reached a record USD 385,000 per day in the week before its 26 October report. Tonne-miles for Aframax/LR2 tankers trading crude and dirty products rose 22% year on year.

MR and Handysize

The Baltic Clean Tanker Index set a record of 3,014 points on 23 October (TradeWinds). For MRs, the TC14 route (US Gulf to UK-Continent) reached USD 53,900 per day, up 65% from the USD 32,600 low on 9 October, while the Atlantic MR basket stood near USD 77,900 per day, the highest since May. For Handy-size tankers (30,000-tonne voyages), TC6 (cross-Mediterranean) rose to USD 109,600 per day and TC23 (cross UK-Continent) to USD 67,900 per day, up 85% and 27% respectively over two weeks.

Clean tonnage is tightening as LR2s switch to crude, with 13 of 22 LR2s on maiden voyages carrying crude (BRS). Clean product volumes loaded on LR2s fell 28% in the first nine months of the year, yet tonne-miles still rose 2% (BIMCO).

Fleet and Newbuildings

The VLCC orderbook has grown to about one third of the fleet, with MRs at 20% and Aframax/LR2 at 18% (Gibson, June). Evercore, using Clarksons data, forecasts newbuilding deliveries of 50.1 million dwt in 2027 and 62.8 million dwt in 2028. VLCC resale values are about USD 245 million, against USD 145 million at mid-year (Clarksons).

Key Points to Watch Next Week

- Tonnage list – Ballast VLCCs heading to the Atlantic rose 30% over the past 10 days; if Atlantic cargo stays weak, rates could correct further.

- Hormuz – Only about 19 commodity vessels transit per day, against more than 100 before the conflict; the IMO recorded a record number of incidents in October.

- Calendar – The OPEC+ meeting on 1 November and the EIA outlook on 10 November.

Information compiled from public sources, updated to 30 October 2026, for reference only.